September 2011

September     2011  Market Update

The U.S. housing market has shown notable stability in 2011 compared to the previous two years when the tax credit made a clear impact. Although recent economic indicators have been less than expected, including a downward revision of GDP and consumer confidence that mirrors early 2009, owning a home is still valued by the majority of Americans. 72% of renters say owning is a top priority for their future, up from 68% a year earlier.

However, most aspiring homeowners are held back by two main factors: funds for a down payment (82%) and confidence in their job security (80%). Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke emphasized the importance of a healthy housing market to a robust recovery. He stressed the adverse effects of tighter credit conditions for borrowers, urging Congress to take tax and policy measures to help stabilize the market. He also noted the significance of addressing long-term fiscal policies including debt levels, upcoming expenses to support an aging population, and taxes.

Buyers continue to benefit from historically favorable buying conditions, and sellers are encouraged by increased market stability. Although the Fed made a commitment to keep its interest rate at the current level until mid-2013, mortgage rates can, and often do, still fluctuate. In the midst of these reports, it is important to keep in mind the path to recovery was always expected to be a long and uneven road. As we progress toward a stronger recovery, economic improvement typically spurs rising interest rates in order to keep inflation in line.

Home Sales

in millions

Home sales in July were up by 21% from the same month last year  when the expiration of the tax credit resulted in a significant drop in sales. However, they were down 3.5% compared to June. This could be due in part to NAR’s report that 16% of members experienced a contract failure from issues in underwriting and appraisals during July. NAR President Ron Phipps states, “For both mortgage credit and home appraisals, there’s been a parallel pendulum swing from very loose standards, which led to the housing boom, to unnecessarily restrictive practices as an overreaction to the housing correction.”

Home Price

in thousands

Home prices dipped by less than 1% in July with median home price at $174,000. This is 4.5% below the year-ago level which followed a strong spring season of sales driven by the tax credit. Median home prices remain close to 2002–2003 levels. Distressed sales continue to count for almost 1 in 3 homes sold. The combination of low prices and record-breaking low interest rates means that home affordability is extremely favorable.

Inventory- Month’s Supply

in months

The supply of homes measured in months on the market at their current pace of sales was up slightly during July compared to June. This is in keeping with historical trends, which show that inventory levels typically rise during the summer months. The month’s supply remained 25% below the peak of 12.5 months in July 2010 and 13% above April of 2010 when the home buyer tax credit was in full swing.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Interest Rates

Mortgage rates hit a new record low in August of 4.15%, primarily due to uncertainty in the global and domestic economies. While these incredible rates represent a significant savings for home buyers, experts note that for the benefits to be fully realized, lending conditions must loosen to enable more buyers to take advantage of them. As overall economic activity gets back on track, rates will likely rise to keep inflation in check. In other words, the window of opportunity for buyers to lock in these historically low interest rates will not last forever.

Source: Freddie Mac

This Month’s Video

Topics For Home Owners, Buyers & Sellers

As the weather gets cooler, some homeowners could be considering undertaking home renovations or updates before the holiday season. Here are a few findings about updates and home sales:

  1. Homeowners typically spend considerably more on updates to their home when planning to live in and enjoy it, with an average of nearly $9,000.
  2.   In contrast, they only spend an average of $3,400 when making updates in preparation to sell.
  3. The most common updates sellers performed before listing were paint, flooring, and light fixtures.
  4. Although the majority of buyers were least likely to compromise on the location, 16% were least likely to compromise on updates.
  5. 75% of homes sold were either fairly updated or very updated.
  6. Sellers began repairing their home 1 to 8 weeks in advance of listing.
Source: KW Market Navigator and KW Research

 

Brought to you by KW Research. For additional graphs and details, please see the This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint Report.
The opinions expressed in This Month in Real Estate are intended to supplement opinions on real estate expressed by local and national media, local real estate agents and other expert sources.  You should not treat any opinion expressed in This Month in Real Estate as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information, and provides said information without warranties of any kind.  All information presented herein is intended and should be used for educational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice.  You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.  All investments involve some degree of risk.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information contained in This Month in Real Estate.

 

August 2011

August 2011  Market Update

The U.S. housing market has shown increased stability in home sales during 2011 compared to the previous year. Home prices are up 18% since their low in February. Signs of recovery remain mixed in the economy—employment and GDP came in less than expected while the strong points were in consumer confidence and new home starts.

The debt ceiling has been raised without any drastic changes to occur immediately. Although this prevents a sudden shock to a weakening recovery, over the next year and a half, experts anticipate considerable changes in how the government spends and collects money. The uncertainty of what is to come and how it will impact various industries will likely cause some to play on the safe side. The good news is that the government remains solvent and will be able to pay its bills without major disruptions.

Economic improvement typically spurs rising interest rates in order to rein in inflation. Although inflation has been a source of recent concern, the Fed appears confident it will remain in check for the near term. Meanwhile, buyers continue to benefit from historically favorable buying conditions, and sellers are encouraged by increased market stability.

Home Sales

in millions

Home sales in June were down 8.8% compared to the same month last year when the impact of the tax credit was at its peak. Compared to the previous month, however, sales held relatively steady at 0.8% below May’s numbers. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun cites an unusually high number of contract cancellations the month before as an explanation for the slight easing of sales in June.

Home Price

in thousands

For the first time in a year, home prices are up year-over-year and month-over-month. This marks only the fourth time that prices have increased since June 2006. Home prices rebounded 8.9% in June with median home prices rising to $184,300. This is 0.8% above the year-ago level. Median home prices remain close to 2003–2004 levels. The combination of low prices and historically low interest rates means that home affordability is extremely favorable.

Inventory- Month’s Supply

in months

The supply of homes measured in months on the market at their current pace was up during June compared to May. This is keeping with inventory levels typically rise during the summer months.  Month’s supply remained 24% below the peak of 12.5 months in July 2010 and 14% above April of 2010 when the home buyer tax credit was in full swing.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Interest Rates

Mortgage rates remain at record lows after steadily declining in May, primarily due to uncertainty in the global and domestic economies. While these incredible rates represent a significant savings for home buyers, experts note that for the benefits to fully be realized, lending conditions must loosen to enable more buyers to take advantage of them. As overall economic activity gets back on track, rates will likely rise to keep inflation in check. In other words, the window of opportunity for buyers to lock in these historically low interest rates may not remain open much longer. 

Source: Freddie Mac

This Month’s Video

Topics For Home Owners, Buyers & Sellers

After a drawn-out debate between the House and the Senate, Democrats and Republicans; Congress and the President reached a deal on August 2, 2011, to raise the debt ceiling. Because of the decision and the additional borrowed funds, the United States is safe from defaulting on its debt and will be able to pay its bills. The deal includes the following:

  • Immediately cuts spending by $917 billion and raises the debt ceiling by $400 billion. It will raise the ceiling by another $500 billion in February, providing funds through early 2013.
  • Creates a joint committee of twelve members from the House and Senate that will make recommendations for $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction measures, and if the plan is rejected by Congress, several automatic spending cuts will take effect.
  • Requires Congress to vote on adding a balanced budget amendment to the constitution, which would mandate that future spending cannot exceed revenues. If it passes, the debt ceiling can be raised by $1.5 trillion. If not, then it can only be raised by $1.2 trillion.

Lack of concrete details about how the deficit will be reduced sets the stage for continued political debate in the coming months and years. And with the U.S. securities AAA rating being threatened with a downgrade, the credit agencies will watch carefully to ensure Congress takes action to steer the country in a financially solvent direction. A downgrade would result in higher interest rates, making it more expensive for consumers and the government to borrow money.

Bottom line: Crisis averted—it’s business as usual for now, but this is not the last to be heard regarding U.S. deficit and debt levels. Some reports indicate that this may change the game in Congress from “spend, spend, spend” to “cut, cut, cut.”

Contact me for information about what’s going on in the St. Louis Metro area.

Brought to you by KW Research. For additional graphs and details, please see the This Month in Real EstatePowerPoint Report.
The opinions expressed in This Month in Real Estate are intended to supplement opinions on real estate expressed by local and national media, local real estate agents and other expert sources.  You should not treat any opinion expressed in This Month in Real Estate as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information, and provides said information without warranties of any kind.  All information presented herein is intended and should be used for educational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice.  You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.  All investments involve some degree of risk.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information contained in This Month in Real Estate.

June 2011

July   2011  Market Update

The U.S. housing market has shown increased stability in home sales during 2011 compared to the previous year. The trend has been an upward one since the expiration of the tax credit last summer. Home prices have softened, particularly earlier this year, due to a higher-than-normal number of distressed sales. However, both the percentage of distressed sales and the amount of time they spend on the market has decreased in recent months, a positive sign for the market moving forward. In fact, prices have steadily followed a positive monthly trend since February. Mortgage defaults have also declined lately.

While interest rates continue to break new record lows, the number of buyers who are able take advantage of these savings is restricted by tougher underwriting standards for mortgages. 40% of the banks surveyed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency tightened lending standards for mortgages within the past year. In his second press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that a quicker foreclosure process and additional home price stabilization are key to boosting confidence in the market and bolstering a more robust recovery in the housing sector.

As the economy improves, stimulus efforts by the government and the Fed will most likely continue to wind down, which typically spurs rising interest rates to keep inflation in check. Although inflation has been the source of recent concern, the Fed appears confident it will remain in check for the near term. Meanwhile, buyers continue to benefit from historically favorable buying conditions, and sellers are encouraged by increased market stability.

Home Sales

in millions

Home sales in May were down 15.3% compared to the same time last year when the impact of the tax credit was at its peak. Compared to the previous month, sales were down 3.8%. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun states that the slower pace of sales is consistent with the slower pace of overall economic activity and that falling gas prices will help to moderate the impact of a sluggish economy. Although he continues to cite unnecessarily tight credit for limiting buying activity, the pace of sales in the second part of the year is expected to be stronger.

Home Price

in thousands

Home prices rebounded 3.4% in May with median home prices rising to $166,500. This is 4.6% below the year-ago level and continues to keep the median price close to 2002–2003 levels. Just under 1 in 3 homes sold during May were distressed properties, which typically sell at a 10%–20% discount. This is down 6 percentage points from April and is exactly the same as a year ago. Investors represented 19% of sales, and first-time buyers accounted for 35% of May sales compared to 14% and 46% respectively a year ago at the peak of the tax credit. Home prices and mortgage rates remain favorable for buyers heading into the summer selling season.

Inventory- Month’s Supply

in months

The supply of homes measured in months on the market at their current pace was up during May compared to April. Inventory levels remained 26% below the peak of 12.5 months in July 2010 and 12% above April of 2010 when the tax credit was in full swing.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Interest Rates

Rates are at a record low after steadily declining throughout May, primarily due to uncertainty in the global and domestic economies. While these incredible rates represent a significant savings for home buyers, experts note that for the benefits to fully be realized, lending conditions must loosen so more buyers can take advantage of them. As overall economic activity gets back on track, rates will likely rise to keep inflation in check. In other words, the window of opportunity for buyers to lock in these historically low interest rates may not remain open much longer.

Source: Freddie Mac

This Month’s Video

Topics For Home Owners, Buyers & Sellers

Tips for Selling Your House

1. Price it right. Studies show that when homes are priced to sell, they not only sell faster, they ultimately command a higher price than homes that sit on the market and get perceived as “stale.”

2. Consider a presale inspection. This will help you to know what items need to be fixed before your home goes on the market. Repairs and concessions made during the negotiation process can end up costing sellers more. KW Research reveals that in 2010, 89% of move-up and 82% of first-time buyers purchased a home in good to excellent condition. 75% of sellers started making repairs 1–8 weeks before listing.

3. Higher may not always be better. While a higher offer can be tempting, be sure to consider the whole offer. An offer without contingencies, conditions, and with a higher down payment may be a more solid deal.

 

Contact me,

your local real estate expert,

for information about what’s going on in our area.

Brought to you by KW Research. For additional graphs and       details, please see the This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint Report.
The opinions expressed in This Month in Real Estate are intended to supplement opinions on real estate expressed by local and national media, local real estate agents and other expert sources.  You should not treat any opinion expressed in This Month in Real Estate as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information, and provides said information without warranties of any kind.  All information presented herein is intended and should be used for educational purposes only.  Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice.  You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.  All investments involve some degree of risk.  Keller Williams Realty, Inc., will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information contained in This Month in Real Estate.